NSOW 1-19. 2018 Watch Industry Review

Hi Im Pete McConvill and welcome to the first post from Not So Obvious Watches.

As this is my first post and I’ve got so much to learn I figured I’d start nice and easy with simple piece to camera and a quick retrospective of some of the big issues from 2018.

In this piece I will - I noticed - be talking about pretty obvious watches but when talking about industry wide changes thats probably unavoidable. I promise that as I get deeper into you tube I’ll stray farther from those well trod paths.

Four of the most significant things in the watch industry in 2018 three of these involve companies not happy to simply drift but are grasping the nettle and taking a risk to grow)


One is a key watch

One is a brand seeking to grow

One is a whole group having a go

One of these wasn't seeing a company take a risk but rather find the limits of its current strategy.

Omega has started its play to take back the crown.

The new Seamaster 300M is a clear statement that Omega wants to get back to its full former glory and isnt going to die wondering:

All new movement 8800 keeping the coaxial escapement but many new tech updates.

Significant decoration and display caseback to show off

Doubling down on certification with COSC/Metas certified

Huge cosmetic update (upgrade?).

Its not a safe design intended to keep traditionalists happy - instead is was a bold statement of intent to be more than a ‘safe’ choice ever could be.

Will this pay off? Did Omega get the design right? Even if the design is great, will the generally conservative watch community value their innovation or punish Omega for breaking from its comfortable niche?

Time will tell but either way the 2018 Seamaster 300M is a singularly important watch for the industry in 2018.

The new Breitling is looking to grow and prepared to take a risk.

Breitling is a surprisingly important independent brand - got to admit I was surprised to find that industry watchers estimate they they have been producing well over half a million watches a year for over a decade.

I suppose thats why CVC Capital Partners was prepared to drop near as dammit to 900 million USD to buy the brand.

And like Omega, the new Breitling isnt prepared to stay in its assigned place.

Dropping the wings from the logo and stating its a watch for land, sea AND air

Bringing out a Navitimer (the 8) that didnt look anything like the ‘old’ Navitimer (now the 1)

Launching an all new Premier line aimed squarely at the DTW market.

Less risky but still signs of change are:

Launching a number of sub dinner plate sized watches with over 40 new watches in 2018 inthe 38-41mm range.

Subtle but significant changes to dial presentation (simpler), case design (more detailed), case finish (more varied and more refined) and new emphasis on in house movements with colourways

Like Omega with the 300M, this is a risk for Breitling. Visit the forums and check out the comments sections of youtube videos and it’s clear that not all these changes have been welcomed. The detail changes have generally been well received.

The Navitimer 8 has been slammed (though the Premier line has been pretty warmly received)

The loss of the wings has been a cause of significant angst.

Having said all that how much of a risk was this really? Breitling wasn't circling the drain BUT it was certainly drifting towards the plug end of the bath and change was needed - still - I think that the industry has been a little taken aback by the pace and scope of change new CEO George Kerns has brought in just one year and that if this takes hold and Breitling changes its trajectory then this change will mean the watch industry in 2020 and beyond will be very different to what was destined.

The entire Richemont is not prepared to stand still and is rolling all the dice it can find.

When I was researching this piece I reviewed the big new of 2018 and one name kept popping up. Richemont!

Panerai Luminor Due. Smaller, little water resistance, more feminine colour ways.

Jaeger Le Coultre Polaris the risky reinvention of an icon and the creation of a more “toolie” image for a brand more generally associated with the dressy end of the spectrum.

Baume formation. I say this with caution but did Richemont just try and create a 21st century swiss ‘fashion watch brand”? All this discussion of sustainability, the use of simple designs, basic quartz movements and (relatively) low prices.

Baume and Mercier Baumatic. All new movement with amazing 120 hour power reserve in an entry level brand.

Mont Blanc revamp - specifically 1858 - bring in new personnel, going more toolie and drawing on Minerva heritage.

Cartier Santos. As Hodinkee said, “Cartier swung for the fences” on this one, reinvented one of its long standing tent poles ‘moderning’ the design, introducing new movement, new bracelet tech and all new marketing and PR.

Vacheron Constantin launched its first watches in decades (the 56 line) that could be considered within reach of the “ordinary” man with an MSRP of 17,300 AUD. Still there is the 53,000 ‘complete calendar and the POA tourbillion models…)

I find it hard to believe this was a coincidence. And there seems to be a real pattern here, its like every brand was told to broaden its appeal - Panerai away from ‘hard core’ tools while JLC/Mont Blanc and Cartier away from the very dressy reps they had. VC to move (a fraction) towards the mass market.

(and yes I know these brands made tool watches - but you had to be pretty hard core watch geek to know the reverso was a sports watch, that the Cartier was the first pilots watch etc - as far as the general public was concerned these brands were dress and dress pretty much only.

If, and thats a big if, this pays off and Panerai AND JLC AND Mont Blanc AND Cartier mange this change and grow significantly (not to mention changes at Baume and B&M) this could change the axis of the watch industry.

Thats worth remarking on and watching.

Finally in 2018 we saw the intensity of feeling for Rolex - and its limits.

There has been constant talk of the Rolex Bubble and endless discussion of what’s causing it, whether it will burst or whether Rolex was on course to join the trilogy.

At the core of all this we saw what could only be described as the madness that ensued after the release of the Pepsi GMT Master ii, the flow on effects to the Batman where watches at ADs became as rare as unicorns while on the secondary market a watch with an MSRP of around 8200USD was changing hands on the secondary market for almost 24,000 USD for the pepsi and 18k for the Batman - put this into perspective the white gold Pepsi was “only” 31k.

At the same time steel subs and daytonas were (and still are) really made from unobtainium and well over retail on the secondary market.

All this even flowed to Rolexes little brother with a smaller version of this instant inflation hitting the a number of the tudors, especially the new blackbay gmt and 58 ranges.

Well at the end of 2018 it appears the bubble hasnt burst, but it does also appear that some air has been let out. Prices for the steel pepsi have dropped back to 18k, the batman to 14 and I saw Frederico on fred talks watches say he’s seen a pepsi sell for 15k recently. Similarly as the Rolexes have dropped off slightly and supply has kicked in the Tudors are now easy to get and going for (very small, almost nominal - 1:3%) discounts on the secondary market.

Finally, it appears that all this was pretty closely confined to a very defined part of the rolex catalog - steel sports watches. Pretty much all the “dress” rolexes and precious metal sports watches have barely shifted and can be bought at discounts on the secondary market. In one odd case I can buy a steel and 18k gold two tone Daytona 116503 for 22028AUD while the steel version 116500 will set me back 33289AUD - how does this make sense?

So what I think after 2018 we say a few things with certainty:

Rolex is definitely still the king of the mid level watch realm - ie watches in that 5000-20000 USD region. If Omega et al want the crown then Rolex is going to take a lot of beating in the market.

However Rolex runs out of oxygen above 20k usd and after that appears to act much more like a “normal” brand with close to industry standard pricing.

Likewise the Rolex bubble is really constrained the steel versions.